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Project BJT Leonardo Bremermann


Electric Power Systems (ESS) have evolved over the years and becoming increasingly complex. This complexity is also related to the importance that renewable energy been gaining in global energy mix. In Brazil and in the world, for economic and environmental reasons, renewable energies are integrated on a large scale in generation systems.

According to the Brazilian Wind Energy Association (ABE Eólica) from 2009 to 2011, the six auctions where wind power has participated, 6.8 GW were contracted through the development of new projects in Brazil. Such projects will raise the volume of wind power facilities in the country for over 8.2 GW by 2016, 5.5 times larger than the current capacity and will attract more than 20 billion dollars in investments. It is a common knowledge that due to the stochastic and probabilistic nature of the system behaviors, demand and failures of the components of the electric power system (EPS), probabilistic methodologies which assess the generation adequacy, should be taken into consideration.

The combination of conventional generation with the renewable generation sources, which involve complex forecasting methodologies combined with variability of consumption, makes the task of including a high level of wind power unit in the engagement procedure rather more complex.

In evaluating the multi-area the static reserve of a production system can be expanded through interconnections with other systems. Thus, when the total available capacity of a production system is insufficient to meet the required demand in your own area, it can search up assistance in systems/neighboring areas, by resorting to the interconnections.

In this context, this project proposes to undertake the development of a computational tool based on probabilistic methodologies which are able to provide adequate information to help in decision-making of Electrical Systems Operators, in relation to the planning of the Brazilian Electric System (SEB).This project has high potential for development of science and innovation. Four major goals of this project can be defined as follows:

1. Theoretical conception and development of a methodology to assess the adaptation of the Brazilian generation system, focused on planning and long-term operation, considering the inclusion of high wind power production in the Brazilian energy mix, which consists predominantly of hydro;

2. Theoretical conception and development of a methodology for analysis and evaluation of multi-area performance of the generation of electricity focused on planning and long-term operation, integrating aspects of adequacy and security of supply, in an environment where renewable energies (mainly wind) include a high portion of uncertainties. The modeling of stochastic long-term behavior of the system components (eg. failure and repair cycles, availability of resources), and representation of different types of failures, should also be taken into account.

3. Theoretical conception and development of a computational tool for multi-area assessment and integration of the methodology developed where the operational reserve has fundamental focus for the determination of risk indices related to the flexibility of the power system, considering the impact of uncertainties regarding the high level of wind generation into the Brazilian energy mix, the variability of demand and failures of generating units.

4 Theoretical conception and development of a demonstrative project where will be used a partner support of the electrical sector to implement in a demonstration environment the developed tool performing the appropriate tests to validate the proposed methodology, providing a new basis for analyzing and assessing the adequacy of Brazilian generating system considering a strong participation of wind power production.

Entities Involved

UFSC – Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina Brasil
INESC P&D Brasil Brasil